ISRAEL'S DANGEROUS GAME: ISRAEL STRIKES WITHOUT U.S. KNOWLEDGE; TRUMP SAYS “IT WON’T HAPPEN AGAIN”

Prof. Dr. Sedat Laçiner

Current Essays, 19 March 2026

✔️ Israel has carried out a major strike on Iran’s largest natural gas field infrastructure—an attack that triggered harsh retaliatory responses from Tehran targeting energy assets linked to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

✔️ In fact, Washington had been careful to avoid targeting Iran’s energy sector. The U.S. had even tolerated Iranian oil exports to some extent, mindful of the risk of rising global oil prices. Iran remains a significant exporter, and price stability is a core American concern.

✔️ Secondly, U.S. officials are acutely aware that striking Iranian oil facilities could prompt Tehran to retaliate against Gulf energy infrastructure. That is precisely what Washington wants to avoid: the Gulf Arab states are key U.S. allies, and protecting oil and gas flows is paramount. Israel, however, appears undeterred.

✔️ Just last week, Israeli aircraft struck five energy facilities around Tehran. Now, they have targeted the South Pars gas field. The Gulf is effectively on fire. The strike was not expected—Tehran had previously warned that any attack on its oil and gas assets would be met in kind.

✔️ U.S. President Donald Trump said in a statement that Washington had no prior knowledge of the Israeli strike, claiming Israel had acted “in a moment of anger.” He also appeared to downplay the attack. His remarks sounded almost dismissive—akin to excusing a sudden outburst rather than addressing a major escalation.

✔️ Trump also stressed that Qatar had no involvement in or prior knowledge of these developments. This is notable given that Qatar hosts the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East, with thousands of American troops stationed there. Iran has accused Qatar and other regional states of facilitating U.S. military operations and allowing their airspace to be used for strikes against Iran.

✔️ In the same statement, the U.S. President added that “no further attacks will be carried out by Israel.” In essence, this amounts to a message: Israel will refrain from targeting energy infrastructure—Tehran should do the same.

✔️ It is clear that Israel’s strike has deeply angered Arab states, prompting immediate calls to the White House. Tensions are rapidly escalating. And with good reason: if Iran were to strike oil and gas infrastructure, it would hit the core revenue lifeline of Gulf economies and could ignite a crisis lasting years.

✔️ It also appears that U.S. officials were not informed in advance of Israel’s actions—much like previous incidents, when Israeli forces reportedly struck oil depots and refineries without prior coordination with Washington.

Why is Israel targeting Iran’s energy sector?

✔️ 1) Strategic pressure: Israel appears to believe that crippling Iran’s energy infrastructure would weaken the regime. Disrupt electricity, halt oil and gas flows, and daily life grinds to a halt—undermining state stability.

✔️ 2) Regional escalation: Israel is also likely calculating that such strikes will provoke Iran into retaliating against Arab states. If Tehran targets Gulf countries, Israel may expect those states to eventually enter the conflict. In other words, Tel Aviv may be seeking to expand the war into a broader Arab–Iranian confrontation.

The bigger picture

✔️ If the conflict expands:

• Israel’s burden would be reduced,

• and the United States would be drawn deeper into the region.

✔️ In short, there is a “game within the game.” Israel’s objectives are not fully aligned with Washington’s. The U.S. seeks to contain the conflict and stabilize energy markets, while Israel appears less concerned with oil prices and more willing to risk escalation.

✔️ A sharp spike in energy prices, however, would ultimately undermine the U.S. economy—highlighting a growing divergence in strategic priorities.

Prof. Dr. Sedat Laçiner

Current Essays, 19 March 2026