A GREAT DEMOGRAPHIC REVERSAL: THE NORTH SHRINKS, THE SOUTH SURGES
Sedat LACINER Humanity is facing what may be the most profound demographic transformation in recorded history. The populations of Western countries, which peaked during the 19th and 20th centuries, have been stagnating or even declining for at least half a century. Across the northern arc of the globe — encompassing Europe, North America, Russia, Japan, and South Korea — fertility rates are collapsing. Populations are shrinking and ageing simultaneously. Once the world’s demographic giants, countries such as Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan are now confronting the specter of sudden demographic collapse. International migration conceals some of this transformation. Germany’s population, for example, appears stable, yet that stability masks a deep internal shift. The number of ethnic Germans is falling, while population growth is sustained only through immigration and the relatively higher fertility of immigrant-origin families. In truth, fertility is declining everywhere. Urb...
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